Friday, February 10, 2006

Deja Vu? Again?

"It's time to party like it's 1999"..

Upon coming across the site link, I am reminded of this Prince song and the Bubble. Remember those non-stop ads on T.V., about how Joe Blow the busboy and Jill Jones the hairdresser made a gazillion dollars trading stocks? Heck, all one had to do was pick a stock that had four letters as its symbol that had something to do with the internet, and viola, it doubled in 2 weeks! People actually quit there jobs to "day trade" and become jillionares. Ah, yes, the days of Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget. Build the infrastructure and they will come.

Then along came this little thing called a "correction." Just a small one, mind you. How much? About 60-80% in the NASDAQ, if you were lucky. And the experts? Like the "experts" of today, they were chanting the mantra of " this time it is different", and " you don't want to sell NOW do you? It ALWAYS comes back!!!" Tell that to the owners of such jewels as Priceline and JDSU.

Are you missing those Halcyon induced euphoria days like me when profits dropped from the sky like snowflakes? Well, relax my friends. Those days are back! Yes! Just listen to these people!!

Below are some of the best from the site: (substitute real estate for stock if you like)

"We Made it BIG!!! "


"In under 6 months the developer tried to buy back the unit he sold me! I was offered $40,000.00 more!!"G.Perez, Miami"

"My property has appreciated $200,000.00 in just 10 months! Preconstruction is the only way to buy..."MJ, Denver, Colorado"

""I flipped my units and made $135,000.00 in just 9 months."D. Angelo, NY"

"" is absolutely great. Thank you for your courtesy and professionalism. You have helped me a lot."M. Bergman, Fort Lauderdale FL""

This one is the best.....
""Your services are truly unique."A.Cohen, Aventura"My properties will be completed in 2007, by then they will be worth $300,000.00 more than I paid for them."JP, Miami"

""My unit sold for $390/Square Foot. Now new projects are selling for $700 to $1000/Square Foot!"B.Frankel, Germany"

What the heck am I waiting for with testimonials like that??!!! I am going tomorrow and shave the dog, sell the fur and go out and buy that preconstruction condo baby. Just close your eyes, put that Prince CD on and paaaaarrrtyy!!!

As always, your rockin' comments welcome


At 3:08 PM, Anonymous Anton said...

What a wonderful Web site. Your observations are hilarious. Please, can you make fun of real estate in the Tampa Bay area while you're at it? People here don't have a clue that shacks shouldn't cost millions of dollars, or that a newly planned highrise on a chemical waste dump is not the dream of a lifetime.

At 4:47 PM, Blogger Osman said...

In some markets, such as yours in South Florida there is undoubtedly a housing market bubble. A rise in speculative activity is in fact the hallmark of an asset bubble. But the recent stock market bubble is a bad comparison to today's housing market bubble for many reasons. The biggest differences boil down to liquidity and the centralization of the market.

Stocks are a highly liquid asset with low trading costs. You can buy a stock by opening up an account with an online broker for a couple hundred bucks. One stock from a particular company is identical to another stock from the same company (within stock classes). The stocks are also traded on a handful of exchanges where, because of the arbitrage of professional traders, the price is nearly always the same. This in essence creates a single financial market for the stock of most public companies. The NYSE or big board is the most well known of the exchanges.

Meanwhile, in the Real Estate market, homes are illiquid assets with very high trading costs. In calm markets, such as the one we have here in Boulder Colorado, selling a home on average takes about two months. Homes from South Florida aren't traded in our market. You also can't go to an exchange and quickly sell your South Florida home to buy a Boulder home (or three). Meanwhile, information affecting the value of individual homes are massively influenced by local economic factors.

This is where people get confused. Unlike stocks, there is no single real estate market. Real estate consists of hundreds (perhaps thousands) of regional, city, and sometimes even neighbhorhood markets. While Bubbles may exist in many, particular in the coastal metro markets of the coasts, a number of markets don't have a bubble. I believe our local market here in Colorado is one of them. See my piece on the House Price Index. In fact, it's even been a bit of a buyers market here for the last several years and a few months ago, the New York Times called us the best case example of a soft landing.

Despite the fundamentals, we've had buyers who are caught up in bubble hysteria, obsessed with inventories rising and sale prices come down. Sellers too are rushing to get their home on the market in fear of losing equity. I'm advising clients to focus on the fundamentals of their home purchase and buy for the intrinsic value of living in the house. The next few months are looking like a great time to buy from panicked sellers.

Another bubblicious mistake is to freak out about month/month changes in prices, inventories, and sales. Month/Month sales are always volatile and strongly impacted by seasonality. The better way to look at it to compare the same month over a number of years. See my piece looking at our market here in Boulder, Colorado on a year/year basis called, Is The Sky Falling in Boulder?


At 1:34 PM, Anonymous Artie Cohen said...

Just visited the sites! I think they are on the money. It seems to me that South Florida (4th largest economy in the world)offers a lot more than just good weather. The fact is that many people have turned pre-construction buying into an art and do make a lot of money. I can't blame them.

I disagree completely with your point of view.

Best regards,
Artie Cohen, Miami Beach Fl

At 8:49 AM, Anonymous A Cohen said...

Hey! I posted my coment recently to your site and you did not update it! This is Artie Cohen from Florida! If this is some bullshit propaganda scam "blogspot" be ready to be sued!

My attorneys will be contacting your provider to find out who you are and more importanlty who you are speading this bullship propaganda for. I also notified the proprietors of the site(s) you are bashing with your dissinformation. ASSHOLE!


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